Looking ahead, IMF redemptions totalling €0.46bn are due to take place on 30 April, while ECB bonds of c.€50mn fall due on 11 April (a c.€2.171bn outstanding bond due on 24 April was issued purely to provide funding for Greek banks at the ECB and so should not be considered as part of funding needs, in our view).
Thereafter, the next significant outflows are due in June and July with €750mn due to the IMF and then c.€2.3bn due to the ECB.
Therefore, we think Greece is likely to be able to negotiate payments up until June (albeit narrowly and with likely recourse to allowing arrears to rise again). However, the July repayments appear more challenging should further ESM disbursements not be forthcoming.